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TI3 Chest bug?

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  • TI3 Chest bug?

    Recently I had traded away / sold quite a few items in order to get a buuuunch of TI3 Keys in the hopes of getting one of the new couriers.
    What came to a surprise though was not receiving one at all after around 140 keys (Only around 120items from the chest are in my backpack due to trading away some for keys.)
    Is this a coincidence (due to the fact i've unboxed unusuals before), is there a limit?
    Or is Valve just deciding to screw over one of their paying customers?

    Some help and understanding relating to this would be amazing
    Thankyou.

    P.S.
    Link to my back pack showing all those scrubby little items from the chests
    *There was 1/3 of the items sold away for keys in hopes... Again for getting an unusual from the TI3 chests - once again no luck*

    LINK - http://steamcommunity.com/id/ottaa/inventory/#570

  • #2
    Maybe you just had bad luck...
    I got my Courier on my 5th Chest! And never got any unusuals before.
    BUT, it could be possible that there is a limit and Valve is not telling that.

    http://dota2.gamepedia.com/Treasure_Chests

    Comment


    • #3
      Let's assume chance is 0.5%,

      in that case

      http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i...1%2F200+chance

      50.43%
      You're only as strong as your weakest link.
      -Thomas Reid

      Comment


      • #4
        you spent 140k, really? why didn't you tried to just use them to buy the new couriers? With 140k and trading fast (not taking long to find the good deals), you could've bought trapjaw, osky and all possible comm/unc/r/myth items that drop from the chest and would still have some keys left, with a little more you could get ALL couriers and items from this chest. And taking time to find good deals, you could have all with your 140k. But you decided to take the risk and here is the result: sometimes you just lose.
        to the community:

        Comment


        • #5
          About this theory, it's probably true though. I've seen many people telling that got their first unusual very fast with few keys (I got mine after 4 keys, was a Lotus one), but then never got a second one even spending hundreds of keys later on (not my case, I won't spend more keys trying to get a second unusual). Maybe for the first times, your chance is really high, but as soon as you get one, it drops for less then 1%, and I don't believe they use the same pseudo random algorithm for chests as they do for crits, so not getting unusuals won't increase you chance to drop one, so yeah, don't try the gambler's fallacy.
          to the community:

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Pedrovp View Post
            you spent 140k, really? why didn't you tried to just use them to buy the new couriers? With 140k and trading fast (not taking long to find the good deals), you could've bought trapjaw, osky and all possible comm/unc/r/myth items that drop from the chest and would still have some keys left, with a little more you could get ALL couriers and items from this chest. And taking time to find good deals, you could have all with your 140k. But you decided to take the risk and here is the result: sometimes you just lose.
            Well highly doubtful considering one of the couriers are worth 110keys
            And if you think about it - the intention was good, get a cour with a few keys - get 110keys. EVEN if I did spend 140k and got ONE such as the smeevil - not only could I sell that later for more, i'd have a cute little guy that is immortal.
            Point be I just don't understand why there was no drop from 140..

            Comment


            • #7
              I opened 61 lotus chest 52 summer chest and 38 juggernaut set and never got a unusual courier. I guess we are just unlucky because my friend got trapjaw with his first key yesterday

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by dragula341 View Post
                I opened 61 lotus chest 52 summer chest and 38 juggernaut set and never got a unusual courier. I guess we are just unlucky because my friend got trapjaw with his first key yesterday
                Something should honestly be implemented where when you spend a certain amount of keys with no actual reward, you should get something..

                Comment


                • #9
                  No. You open chests for the items.

                  Unusuals, that is just a lottery and you knew it when you started.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by puTTy View Post
                    No. You open chests for the items.

                    Unusuals, that is just a lottery and you knew it when you started.
                    Yeah but you'd expect something out of so much, no?
                    You'll feel the same when you go on a chest spree some day.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      never use keys to get chest courier...never open a chest.
                      just buy all items by trade...you could buy the best cour(feez smeevil with carpet) for 100keys and other items for 2-3 keys total...

                      this is just a advise from a player that opened tremendous amount of chest and realise trading is cheaper %75...

                      i too opened chests cuz "what if i find the cour in 2-3 chests" thought. NEVER EVER THINK ABOUT IT.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Whilst it can be frustrating, for the sake of this point, let's say opening one chest gives something silly like 1/10,000 of getting that courier. The question is, if you open 10,000 chests does it guarantee you a courier? No. If you open 1,000,000 does it guarantee you a courier? Still no I'm afraid. There's no cumulative odds involved here and each chest has it's own low chance of dropping the super-rare items. Gambling is gambling and whilst it can pay off for that lucky 1 person, for almost everyone else it doesn't and never will. If you were willing to spend that many keys you should have just traded, all the new couriers (unusual) are only 40-60k or so...

                        So back to the original question, no, there's no bug and neither yourself nor anyone else should have expected this plan to "pay off" I'm afraid.

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