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incandescent wax

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  • incandescent wax

    opened ~ 230 chests of this a few days ago
    got 0 couriers

    PS: the peek inside layout has changed now, it doesnt even say it can drop an unusual courier anymore, except if you view it in the web description. Instead skywrath ward is displayed as extremely rare.

  • #2
    Word has it; TF2, CS:GO, DotA2 chests' unussual rate is 1%. But the truth is lower then that, some of big peoples (have shitton money) test the ratio; it turns out its around 1/250 or lower depend on your luck. So if you dont care about losing money you can gamble, but thats what you'll get(lose) for sure.Otherwise go shop at market.
    Last edited by auygurbalik; 07-05-2014, 05:23 PM.


    • #3
      right now it does not say it cause they dont drop unusual couriers. Those you see on the market are the old ones that expired. About that 1/250 you said is not even close to real. If they say its 1/100 i believe it since they dont have a reason to lie about that. Take this as an example. If you flip a coin you have 50% to get heads, which is far from 1/100. You might flip a coin 10 times and get 10 heads while I take the exact same coin, flip it 10 times and get 10 tails. Is this gonna happen? I doubt it. Is it possible? It is more than possible. The chances do NOT stackup

      PS for anyone that might want to comment the coin's 50% im just talking theoretically, its not really 50%


      • #4
        what if i told you I'm at a 550 ~ chest streak without [unusual] couriers? and I bought a total of ~600 chests throughout my dota2 play. in the first 50 chests I got a Trapjaw, then after that nothing. I realize I'm really unlucky... but I wanted to share my story.


        • #5
          If some lucky brat get his unussual at his first chest (if he's not lying), in same way, you can get all commons from 1000 chests. Actually it doesnt matter how many you opened it if you ask the math. This is not a lottery that you buy multiple tickets to increase the chance; they are seperate events which each opening has its own ratio, thus, basically you dont increase your chance*, you just retry.

          You are not buying 600 tickets from a lottery, you just buying a ticket from 600 different lottery. Which has compleately different probability. Absolute samething goes for Random and Pseudo-Random at DotA or everyother place.

          *edit:Ofc your chance is increasing if you look all events at once (since the probability of not getting unussual at 1 chest is higher then not getting unussual at 2 chests), but not as much as the other situation.
          Last edited by auygurbalik; 07-05-2014, 07:35 PM.