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Determining Skill by W/L-Rate is bad

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  • #31
    Originally posted by Craig View Post
    After that match, the Jakiro's rank went up and the Lion's rank went down. Seems fair right?
    why are you trying to divert the issue with your fallacious reasoning? you seem to be very fond of doing this. this is not an issue of who has gained rank or who has lost rank. This is an issue of balancing the game. It's clear that there's a huge discrepancy in terms of skill level between the lion and the jakiro.

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by iceinaglass View Post
      why are you trying to divert the issue with your fallacious reasoning? you seem to be very fond of doing this. this is not an issue of who has gained rank or who has lost rank. This is an issue of balancing the game. It's clear that there's a huge discrepancy in terms of skill level between the lion and the jakiro.
      Please explain why you think the reasoning is fallacious.

      It is in no way clear that there is a "huge discrepancy in terms of skill level between the lion and the jakiro".

      The Lion may play Jakiro in the next match and do just as well and the Jakiro may play Lion is the next match and do just as badly. One match doesn't give a very good picture of a player's ability. Only the entire match history can give that.
      Last edited by Craig; 08-09-2013, 01:27 PM.
      To avoid LPQ:

      Don't draw attention to yourself
      Don't use voice or chat except for 'ss'
      Mute all at lvl 1
      Only play in parties
      Get alternate accounts
      Limit your usage to one or two games per day per account
      Don't play too well
      Don't play on Sunday or Monday
      Wait until the developers reset LPQ status

      If you're getting matched with trolls or feeders:

      You may have been placed in a hidden pool. There is no known way out of this, apart from moving to a different account.

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by Craig View Post
        Please explain why you think the reasoning is fallacious.
        No. You explain to us why you think that game is balanced.

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by iceinaglass View Post
          No. You explain to us why you think that game is balanced.
          No. I made no such claim that the game was balanced.
          To avoid LPQ:

          Don't draw attention to yourself
          Don't use voice or chat except for 'ss'
          Mute all at lvl 1
          Only play in parties
          Get alternate accounts
          Limit your usage to one or two games per day per account
          Don't play too well
          Don't play on Sunday or Monday
          Wait until the developers reset LPQ status

          If you're getting matched with trolls or feeders:

          You may have been placed in a hidden pool. There is no known way out of this, apart from moving to a different account.

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by Craig View Post

            The Lion may play Jakiro in the next match and do just as well and the Jakiro may play Lion is the next match and do just as badly.
            fallacy of assumption.

            Originally posted by Craig View Post
            One match doesn't give a very good picture of a player's ability. Only the entire match history can give that.
            Please, that lion didn't ward his team that's why jakiro and i were able to gank them effortlessly. zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by Craig View Post
              No. I made no such claim that the game was balanced.
              so tell me what you think of that game: is it a balanced game or not?

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by iceinaglass View Post
                so tell me what you think of that game: is it a balanced game or not?
                I don't have time to watch it right now. If there's still any interest in the thread in a week or so, I'll take a look.
                To avoid LPQ:

                Don't draw attention to yourself
                Don't use voice or chat except for 'ss'
                Mute all at lvl 1
                Only play in parties
                Get alternate accounts
                Limit your usage to one or two games per day per account
                Don't play too well
                Don't play on Sunday or Monday
                Wait until the developers reset LPQ status

                If you're getting matched with trolls or feeders:

                You may have been placed in a hidden pool. There is no known way out of this, apart from moving to a different account.

                Comment


                • #38
                  W/L rate isn't even a valid stat because of abandon games.

                  Skill should be determined by performance in games and average XPM/GPM and not by W/L-rates
                  There's no way a computer system can probably decide who performed well in games. XPM/GPM is going to heavily bias in favor of certain heroes and against others. And it won't tell you which guys made their teams better by good communicating and selflessness, and which players made things worse by jackass behavior that antagonized their teammates.

                  fallacy of assumption.
                  Actually, it wasn't. It was a simple understanding of statistics and the useless of small sample sizes.

                  you can tell what type of player a person is by looking at his average KDA
                  Often just looking at deaths is more useful than the K/D ratio, although both are flawed ways of deciding much.
                  Last edited by Kaiman; 08-09-2013, 04:44 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Kaiman View Post
                    There's no way a computer system can probably decide who performed well in games. XPM/GPM is going to heavily bias in favor of certain heroes and against others. And it won't tell you which guys made their teams better by good communicating and selflessness, and which players made things worse by jackass behavior that antagonized their teammates.
                    Even if you normalise per hero, GPM and XPM are terrible indicators of contribution. In the extreme, there are at least 2 heroes who can easily deliver 850 GPM and 600 XPM, but often it would be at great cost to their team. You might argue that that would show up in KDA or hero dmg, but it doesn't. You just use you 850 GPM build to take a lot of kills at the end.

                    Creating a skew in the matchmaking to these types of statistics means selfish players filter to the top and the top matches are full of players who don't play for match outcomes.

                    Actual player effectiveness is so much more complicated. You can play well all game by any metric, but often, a game can be won or lost in a single decision. A build decision. A simple warding decision. A smoke. One hero getting of position in late game. It can be almost anything, but if it gives you that critical advantage or disadvantage in a late game team fight, then it can decide the match.

                    There is no way to code this complexity up. It's hard enough for a human mind, even inductively, to comprehend what were the important decisions in any particular match.
                    Last edited by Craig; 08-10-2013, 03:41 AM.
                    To avoid LPQ:

                    Don't draw attention to yourself
                    Don't use voice or chat except for 'ss'
                    Mute all at lvl 1
                    Only play in parties
                    Get alternate accounts
                    Limit your usage to one or two games per day per account
                    Don't play too well
                    Don't play on Sunday or Monday
                    Wait until the developers reset LPQ status

                    If you're getting matched with trolls or feeders:

                    You may have been placed in a hidden pool. There is no known way out of this, apart from moving to a different account.

                    Comment

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