Matchmaking should be 50% chance to win, not 50% winrate

[Zacharybinx34]

There is a huge but subtle difference between matchmaking making your win rate stay around 50% at any cost, and matchmaking making games have a 50% win chance for both teams.

If matchmaking worked correctly all Dota players wouldn't have 50% wins. The most blatant way to tell that the matchmaking works incorrectly is that nearly all of the Dota player base is at, or very very close to 50% wins.

The reason for this is because a matchmaking system that actually tried to balance each game to have a 50% chance for both teams to win, would NEVER be able to do it so all of the player base was at or very nearly at 50%. Dota is too dynamic of a game to do that. Some players are just better at adapting to different PUB situations, and therefore they would be higher than 50% wins, not substantially, but higher indeed.

The way the current matchmaking works is,
You just came off a losing streak - all percentages are guesstimates to show the idea behind the currently flawed system.
Game 1. 70% chance to win - usually giving you people who communicate the same language, and play as a team.
- Wins game
Game 2 65% chance to win -
- Wins game
Game 3 55% chance to win
- Wins game

Game 4 (O SNAP U WON'D TOO MUCH IN A ROWZ) Gives you noobs and matches you against better players/premade, but doesn't give you better players to play with - 30% chance to win
- Loses game

Game 5. 35% chance to win
- Loses game

Game 6. 45% chance to win
- Loses game



This is an idea of how the currently flawed matchmaking system works.

What it should look like is this.


Game 1 - landslide victory, you played well

Game 2 - Matches you with slightly better players than last game on both sides for a 50%

Every game should be a 50% chance to win no matter your win rate.

Now, if the matchmaking does it's job properly, this will result in around a 50% win/loss ratio - so while the result is the same, how you get there is VERY VERY different and less frustrating. You are losing games not solely based on being grouped with noobs that you can't carry, you are losing because the games are down the wire and both teams are equally skilled.

[max1c]

It's been said numerous times by the developers that match making is NOT trying to keep your win rate at 50%. The sole fact that it coincidentally does this is a good reason to believe that match making works somewhat well.

[Zacharybinx34]

It's been said numerous times by the developers that match making is NOT trying to keep your win rate at 50%. The sole fact that it coincidentally does this is a good reason to believe that match making works somewhat well.

They have lied then.

The matchmaking does NOT create fair/close/balanced matches consistently.

[hoveringmover]

+1

All the time I'm matched with bad players...Even my last game, I(as a non-Captain to a Captain that hadn't even known that Captains are always the Pink and Blue players) recommended a great 2 agility heroes, one for solo mid(my position) and one for the trilane, and we wrecked early game so hard, but mid game and late game, inexplicably people started feeding the Phantom Assassin almost nonstop, perhaps relying too much on seeing minimap blips, as Blur neutralizes Phantom Assassin's blip. And yet, despite the disaster, I was able to buy our second agility hero enough time to buy among other things, Monkey King Bar and Divine Rapier. One thing I had to do was buy a Gem of True Sight just to make sure they kept chasing me around because obviously they wanted to steal that. It was silly, and that general lack of skill in avoiding being killed by the Assassin despite our huge early lead nearly cost us the game. Only through a lot of trickery was I able to stall their efforts to get enough steam up to push long enough to let our other agility hero eventually farm up to GOD MODE and win us the game. :/ It was silly and I clearly don't deserve such losers on my team. But there they are.

[mibuwolf]

They have lied then.

The matchmaking does NOT create fair/close/balanced matches consistently.

Cause you can prove otherwise? You are free to stick with your gut, but that's all it is for now. As for the matchmaking & consistent matches -> I think that is expected until they change the system and release the game. I just don't have the expectation of 100% consistency like you do.

All the time I'm matched with bad players...

That's what everyone says, but I won't believe it till I see it I suppose.
[insert dunning kruger effect reference]

[hoveringmover]

Cause you can prove otherwise? You are free to stick with your gut, but that's all it is for now. As for the matchmaking & consistent matches -> I think that is expected until they change the system and release the game. I just don't have the expectation of 100% consistency like you do.

That's what everyone says, but I won't believe it till I see it I suppose.
[insert dunning kruger effect reference]

If you think you're so smart, explain to me this. What's the sixth most popular item according to DOTABUFF on Lina this month? For a 60 percent win rate, the Blink Dagger. And for a 35 percent win rate, coming in at third most popular item, the Bracer. The Bracer goes into Drums which is oddly enough the seventh most popular item at a 52 percent win rate. So that may explain the weak win rate that Bracer experiences, players simply can't get the gold they need for the Drums and the game is over very quickly. However apparently the advantage is so great when they do when that they can afford such an item as a Blink Dagger and still not lose 60 percent of the time. But looking back on every game I've ever seen Lina play in, Blink Dagger on her has shown itself to be needing to be renamed to Feed Dagger. Why don't people go for Bloodstone, with its 73 percent win rate, which is the 8th most popular? Or a Linken's Sphere perhaps, with its 72 percent win rate, and yet a popularity place of 56th? Or 63rd place Refresher Orb at 72 percent win rate?

If you really think Feed Dagger is going to help her avoid feeding Phantom Assassin, you're part of the MM system that gets thrown at good players for the sake of attempting to make them lose.

Now let me ask you, since I have never lost to a Feed Dagger Lina, how is it possible? Yes, I've lost to Blink Dagger heroes plenty of times, but never her. The item is just that bad, yet how do other people do it? Because MM is just that broken. It actually doesn't recognize that the Lina in my game is any worse than I am, and assumes we're on the same level. So if we play together 5 games in a row and win 5 games in a row, she'll get really bad allies or good opponents when we go our separate ways the next game, as will I, and assuming nobody on our teams were actually trolling but were just legitimately bad, she won't be able to handle it, while I will. Where is the sense in that?

You would be surprised how many people are willing to troll you just for the sake of protecting their pride. And the chat ban system makes it harder than ever to explain to your allies what they could do better.

Don't forget that she has an overall win rate of 45 percent. That's definitely below average, indicating that when she's winning with a Bluff Dagger, she obviously could've contributed way more by buying any other item. If the most popular items were really the best items she could be buying, she'd surely have a much higher win rate. The reason she's able to afford such a relatively useless item and still win is because of her teammates, not because of the player controlling her.

[neo_yangon]

"50% chance to win" translates into 50% win rate. Basic maths. Unless you're too good or too bad, you'll have around 50% win rate.

[mibuwolf]

"50% chance to win" translates into 50% win rate. Basic maths. Unless you're too good or too bad, you'll have around 50% win rate.

It translates into an expected win rate of 50%. There is a difference. However, I'm sure that is what you meant.

If you think you're so smart, explain to me...

Can't. This data doesn't tell the whole story. It's just a bit of information, and without correlation I just cannot say a whole lot over what you are ranting on about.

As for coming up with the conclusion of whether or not MM gave you a fair match... I would have a hard time doing so. It would require a lot of looking up how each player's history and a look at some replays. I would rather just leave it as a possible example of the dunning kruger effect. I'm not trying to take sides, but hopefully you can understand where I am coming from.

[BlinkingRiki182]

If you think you're so smart, explain to me this. What's the sixth most popular item according to DOTABUFF on Lina this month? For a 60 percent win rate, the Blink Dagger. And for a 35 percent win rate, coming in at third most popular item, the Bracer. The Bracer goes into Drums which is oddly enough the seventh most popular item at a 52 percent win rate. So that may explain the weak win rate that Bracer experiences, players simply can't get the gold they need for the Drums and the game is over very quickly. However apparently the advantage is so great when they do when that they can afford such an item as a Blink Dagger and still not lose 60 percent of the time. But looking back on every game I've ever seen Lina play in, Blink Dagger on her has shown itself to be needing to be renamed to Feed Dagger. Why don't people go for Bloodstone, with its 73 percent win rate, which is the 8th most popular? Or a Linken's Sphere perhaps, with its 72 percent win rate, and yet a popularity place of 56th? Or 63rd place Refresher Orb at 72 percent win rate?

If you really think Feed Dagger is going to help her avoid feeding Phantom Assassin, you're part of the MM system that gets thrown at good players for the sake of attempting to make them lose.

Now let me ask you, since I have never lost to a Feed Dagger Lina, how is it possible? Yes, I've lost to Blink Dagger heroes plenty of times, but never her. The item is just that bad, yet how do other people do it? Because MM is just that broken. It actually doesn't recognize that the Lina in my game is any worse than I am, and assumes we're on the same level. So if we play together 5 games in a row and win 5 games in a row, she'll get really bad allies or good opponents when we go our separate ways the next game, as will I, and assuming nobody on our teams were actually trolling but were just legitimately bad, she won't be able to handle it, while I will. Where is the sense in that?

You would be surprised how many people are willing to troll you just for the sake of protecting their pride. And the chat ban system makes it harder than ever to explain to your allies what they could do better.

Don't forget that she has an overall win rate of 45 percent. That's definitely below average, indicating that when she's winning with a Bluff Dagger, she obviously could've contributed way more by buying any other item. If the most popular items were really the best items she could be buying, she'd surely have a much higher win rate. The reason she's able to afford such a relatively useless item and still win is because of her teammates, not because of the player controlling her.

I just love people that dont understand what blink dagger is for. This is a positioning item, not an escape item my friend. It helps you land that stun on several heroes at once (if they are not careful). It's an initiator item that (when used correctly) makes the whole difference between an average joe support and a high lvl player.

[hoveringmover]

I just love people that dont understand what blink dagger is for. This is a positioning item, not an escape item my friend. It helps you land that stun on several heroes at once (if they are not careful). It's an initiator item that (when used correctly) makes the whole difference between an average joe support and a high lvl player.

I understand what it is for just fine. It's the people that buy it on Lina against assassins that don't need to be thrown at innocent players that won too many games! That's what the original post is about, the MM justifying the means to an end. The means is bad players(trolls or not, they are undeniably bad) on your team. The end is the 50 percent win rate, or so they wish for. You don't force a troll on someone and then tell him the loss was his fault. It's just not right.

[Mvstery]

Heres my game history:
Win
Win
Win
Loss
Loss
Win
Win
Win
Loss
Loss
Loss
Loss
Win

[BlinkingRiki182]

I understand what it is for just fine. It's the people that buy it on Lina against Assassins that don't need to be thrown at innocent players that won too many games! That's what the original post is about, the MM justifying the means to an end. The means is bad players(trolls or not, they are undeniably bad) on your team. The end is the 50 percent win rate, or so they wish for. You don't force a troll on someone and then tell him the loss was his fault. It's just not right.

There is absolutely no difference if there are assasins in the game or not. It's an initiator item that can be done in every situation. Or maybe you like the daedalus line with 70% winrate?

[hoveringmover]

There is absolutely no difference if there are assasins in the game or not. It's an initiator item that can be done in every situation. Or maybe you like the daedalus line with 70% winrate?

At least that item gives damage which has synergy with Fiery Soul. Bluff Dagger doesn't. But I'm not here to argue strategy or tactics with lesser players and to teach them how to play the game. I can do that in game...oh wait, no I can't, the chat ban system won't let me, will it?

[mibuwolf]

Heres my game history:
Win
Win
Win
Loss
Loss
Win
Win
Win
Loss
Loss
Loss
Loss
Win

... and I've seen smurfs/non-smurfs with tons of wins. Smurfs in particular like to attempt at a 100% win-rate and somehow a lot of them do. Some of them have I believe a 100 win streak or more. I imagine also the opposite is true. Some people can have a really long loss streak, at about maybe 20-30% win ratio.

I see no evidence supporting the 50% forced winrate theory.

[BlinkingRiki182]

At least that item gives damage which has synergy with Fiery Soul. Bluff Dagger doesn't. But I'm not here to argue strategy with lesser players and to teach them how to play the game. I can do that in game, oh wait, no I can't, the chat ban system won't let me, will it?

Lol, dude you are just ridiculously funny. Claiming that Lina should be played as carry makes me laugh my ass off xD. You have a lot to learn before you even come close to my level of play dude