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Thread: Solo MM Changed?

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaella View Post
    simple probability
    each match is intended to be a 50/50

    its similarly possible to flip a coins and hit tails 100 times in a row
    Except DotA isnt a coin and you're analogy is idiotic at best.

  2. #22
    Basic Member RoqueDemon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NewToTheWWW View Post
    Except DotA isnt a coin and you're analogy is idiotic at best.
    His analogy is correct.
    Matches are supposed to be balanced in such a way that there is a 50% chance for a certain side to win. When you flip the coin there's a 50% chance for a certain side to land.
    Getting tails 10 times in 10 flips is possible but the statistics say that it should have only happened 5 times. Just like winning 10 games in a row is possible but, statistically, 5 of those should be losses.

  3. #23
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    You guys wanna complain about bad team mates? Today i had a game against nature and bara which means absolute need of wards. Shadow shaman on our team was rolling around with 2.5k not buying anything, ofc no wards. Team started raging at him, you know what he did? He said he didn't cared about losing, he was used to it, then proceeded to jungle for the next 25 minutes to buy a divine rapier to throw the game away.

    We won the game 4x5 the same minute he was about to feed the rapier. He got reported but people like that should be banned from the game after actions like that, its obviously some people are simply too dumb to play this game. Oh yeah, i checked his steam profile, his name was Vladimir, enough said.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoqueDemon View Post
    His analogy is correct.
    Matches are supposed to be balanced in such a way that there is a 50% chance for a certain side to win. When you flip the coin there's a 50% chance for a certain side to land.
    Getting tails 10 times in 10 flips is possible but the statistics say that it should have only happened 5 times. Just like winning 10 games in a row is possible but, statistically, 5 of those should be losses.
    Except DotA isnt a coin and you're both idiots.

  5. #25
    Basic Member Shaella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NewToTheWWW View Post
    Except DotA isnt a coin and you're both idiots.
    but matches are created to be a 50/50 chance for each side to win. Sure its not a coin, but its a good representation

  6. #26
    Basic Member rat-ct's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoqueDemon View Post
    His analogy is correct.
    Matches are supposed to be balanced in such a way that there is a 50% chance for a certain side to win. When you flip the coin there's a 50% chance for a certain side to land.
    Getting tails 10 times in 10 flips is possible but the statistics say that it should have only happened 5 times. Just like winning 10 games in a row is possible but, statistically, 5 of those should be losses.
    Look, flipping a coin is not the same as rolling a dice. You can flip either zero or one but you can't roll zero no matter what.

    IF a dice has 6 sides and dota has teams of 5 you roll 10 times. Leaver = 1 New = 2 Medium = 3 High = 4 Veteran = 5 Pro = 6
    IF one side rolls 6,2,3,5,4, and another 2,5,1,1,1, the side with leavers is going to lose. There's no 50% chance they win.

    There is only 0.1% chance they win because of server failure. (0.1 =/= 0.0)
    Coin flip on the other hand, has no hidden rating at all, just leaver-0 and non-leaver-1 (exactly 50% chance to win)

  7. #27
    Basic Member Shaella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rat-ct View Post
    Look, flipping a coin is not the same as rolling a dice. You can flip either zero or one but you can't roll zero no matter what.

    IF a dice has 6 sides and dota has teams of 5 you roll 10 times. Leaver = 1 New = 2 Medium = 3 High = 4 Veteran = 5 Pro = 6
    IF one side rolls 6,2,3,5,4, and another 2,5,1,1,1, the side with leavers is going to lose. There's no 50% chance they win.

    There is only 0.1% chance they win because of server failure. (0.1 =/= 0.0)
    Coin flip on the other hand, has no hidden rating at all, just leaver-0 and non-leaver-1 (exactly 50% chance to win)
    the problem is you assume that games are dicerolls

    They are not.

  8. #28
    Basic Member rat-ct's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaella View Post
    the problem is you assume that games are dicerolls

    They are not.
    Maybe, but it's not my problem, I'm just making an example.
    You can either flip a coin or roll 1-3 vs 4-6 for map position because it's radiant or dire, there's no 3rd option.
    But to simulate the outcome of a match, you need a dice simply because of leavers.
    So instead of the coin, you roll 1-2 fast/slow win, 3-4 fast/slow loss, 5 someone leaves and you win and 6 someone leaves and you lose.
    A coin can not represent win/loss because it will never land on the "no-stats-recorded" side.

  9. #29
    Basic Member Shaella's Avatar
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    no stats recorded is data thats irrelevant. You throw it out

  10. #30
    Basic Member rat-ct's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaella View Post
    no stats recorded is data thats irrelevant. You throw it out


    So in theory, this is your coin. It sometimes magically lands on the side, but that's just irrelevant.
    In practice, this is a cylinder, it lands on the side most of the time due to technical issues.

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