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Thread: Unreasonably long losing streak?

  1. #1
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    Unreasonably long losing streak?

    Since May 31st I have played 26 games and only won 5 of them, with the other 21 being losses.

    At first I figured it was just bad luck. But now I'm starting to think the matchmaker has flagged my account for some reason, and it is intentionally putting me on whichever team is less likely to win.

    Now before you think I'm feeding or that I'm bad, please know that I have less than 3 reports, and 3-4 commends (in the last 10 games). I've always been running more commends than reports. My team mates are generally not blaming me for the losses.

    But in every game since the 30th it's been like my team was 1k mmr and playing against a team that was 5k+.

    You can even look at their profiles, and often the enemy team will all be on huge win streaks, and my teammates will all be on huge losing streaks. It's like the matchmaker is doing this intentionally.

    And most of the 5 wins I had, were very hard games that we barely won. None were easy wins. But the vast majority of the losing games the enemy team would finish by saying something like "soo ez" or "thx for ez mmr" etc. And it's been like that for 26 games now. It's just been one stomp after another.

    Something you should know... I always random every game, as the first pick for my team if I can. So sometimes I'm playing support, other times I'm a carry. I'm comfortable playing almost every hero in the game and I'm pretty good. This is my smurf account where this is happening. But because I random, every game is very different. So these losses are not the result of some bad strategy I'm repeating on a single hero. Because I random, so every game plays out very differently. But one thing remains the same in the end my team gets crushed.

    Here's what I'd like to know....

    1) Does the matchmaker cherry pick which team will win?
    2) Is it possible to have your account flagged to where the matchmaker will try to always put you on the team that's most likely to lose?
    3) If so, what are some possible reasons that could happen?
    Last edited by HiRoGliFiQ; 06-04-2016 at 11:27 PM.

  2. #2
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    I know your pain bro.

  3. #3
    Lmao...

    Its 3) and the answer is: "I always random every game".

    Reading things like "Im comfortable playing almost every hero in the game" is quite funny, esp from someone who I assume isnt a 5K+ player, let alone 3K?

    Im sensing some Dunning Kruger here. Theres a reason why some ppl habe played 500+ games with a certain hero and only very few other ppl can play that hero nearly as well. When all you do is random heroes, its safe to assume you cant even play 1 hero decently. Except maybe some 1-button supports like Ogre Magi and thats it.

    Randoming heroes should actually be banned for ranked mode because its probably #1 reason for lost games. Not to mention we have a meta where only few heroes are actually effective and then you have clowns like op who randoms every single game lmao. Im sorry for all the ppl who lost MMR because of your idiocy to random heroes every game.

    Calculate 4 players x 25mmr x the ammount of games you lost and you know how much mmr youve wasted for other ppl, just by beeing some ignorant, self important Dunning Kruger clown to think he can play "nearly every hero" in the game and thinking that any random hero is any good in this meta.
    Last edited by WastedPenguinz; 06-06-2016 at 11:47 AM.

  4. #4
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    Actually, I wish to disagree with the wasted penguins. While it indeed is a reasonable assumption that specializing to a small but diverse set of heroes that are effective in the metagame will improve your effectiveness at dota compared to randoming instantly every game, this will not impact your win rate over extended periods of time except in extreme cases.

    Allow me to explain: If a random player shifts to become a 'meta player', his MMR will likely improve. So suppose it goes up from 3000 to 3500. When it plateaus to the new level, their win rate will stabilize around 50% again. The converse holds for the reverse shift. During the shift, the player will have a positive respectively negative win rate for a short time. Maintaining positive win rate is really only applicable to the top <0.01% of players. This is a natural effect of matchmaking -- you are matched with equal opponents.

    You're just handicapping yourself. But since it's consistent, it won't matter for winrate. For a -relevant to your internet handle- allegory consider what happens when always drinking a bottle of rum an hour before a play session. Now the win rate would dip while intoxicated if you didn't drink consistently. In other cases it would be unaffected.

    Back to the OP then, what is the poster's observed effect? I asked Wolfram Alpha for binomcdf(n,p,k) with n=26, p=0.5, k=5 (The probability of winning 5 or fewer fair coin flips out of 26 coins).

    The output was:
    x<5 | 0.000266761
    This is approx. a 1 in 4,000 chance.

    Since this is a hand-picked example from a large sample set (all dota players that post on these forums), you were just especially unlucky, nothing to see here.
    Now if you posted about 200 games in a row with 20% winrate, there's probably something wrong there. The statistical Law of Large numbers would start to apply.
    The matchmaker does not try to 'compensate' you for lost games directly, only via the mmr rating system. E.g. each new game is against 5 random players with average mmr similar to your own. There's no 'pseudo-random' rolls in matchmaking. This is logical and fair, people would try to game the system otherwise.


    Commenting on the fact that the 'winning' side often feels like they had an 'easy' time in dota: This happens mostly because many dota games are decided early on in the game. While often still winnable, it becomes increasingly hard for the losing side to make a comeback happen as the winning side capitalizes on its advantage to continue pulling ahead while taking little risk. This is also referred to as 'snowballing'. It's exacerbated (it tends to happen more frequently and is more pronounced) when playing certain heroes like 'Slark' or 'Storm Spirit'. Of course, a hero that tends to snowball when winning ('winning more') also tends to find it quite hard to come back from a lost game, there are two sides to this coin.

    Some measure of snowballing is a necessary aspect of the game to make sure the early game is relevant. Consider a dota that is only decided after 30 minutes through a comeback mechanic tuned too highly. What happens is that you could lose on purpose in order to win. This doesn't make for a very good game, as good play isn't rewarded at all (in fact, pulling ahead of your opponent in the laning stage in net worth is more of a liability than an advantage. It should always be the latter for obvious reasons).
    Last edited by Aphid; 06-07-2016 at 08:15 AM.

  5. #5
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    There is not such thing like hidden pool or flag an account. However you may be actually getting a bad luck; my recommendation is when you lose for the 2nd time in consecutive games, stop playing for at least 30 minutes. Repeat process til you get fine team mates.

    Also stop going random. Point the role you wanna play in the map instead and select your potential heroe. It's demoralizing for the team when someone randoms into very counter-able picks like Clinkz, Drow Ranger, Techies, Wraith King, etc.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by pent1um View Post
    Also stop going random. Point the role you wanna play in the map instead and select your potential heroe. It's demoralizing for the team when someone randoms into very counter-able picks like Clinkz, Drow Ranger, Techies, Wraith King, etc.
    This exactly. Also you forgot Sniper, Tinker, Zeus etc. etc. Theres a reason why even in Pubs, ppl try to pick Mid/Carry as late as possible. Thats common sense and common logic too, you dont start a game showing your strongest cards. Thats sheer idiotic.

    Its not surprising he comes here asking why he gets wrecked every single game and then at the same time mentions "oh btw I only random heroes..." lmao. The probability is over 90% that its because he sucks. I mean something like that should be selfexplanatory, you dont have to be very smart for that. Yet he cant find the cause for his problems, goes to a forum and asks ppl why it is that he gets demolished every single game.

    Do you see some 5K+ streamers random every single game and win the majority of the games? Do you see some 6K+ boosters who boost a low MMR account, random heroes every single game, even playing on a 2K account?

    This OP man

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