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Thread: I am greatly disappointed by the keys / chest system, tons of duplicates!

  1. #21
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    Comparing a situation where you gambled (chests) to one where you didn't (skins from League of Legends) is an unfair comparison. Had you outright purchased cosmetic items for the heroes who have them, you would have spent a fraction of the cash you spent in general and in League of Legends/Heroes of Newerth with said items guaranteed in DOTA2. But, I agree with you. The chests should have a disclaimer that you do not have an equal chance of getting each item possible in the crate. The current crate is misleading. "Or an Exceedingly Rare Special Item!" could mean the item is just rare, though you have an equal chance of obtaining it from the crate as much as it could mean it's exceedingly rare to obtain it from said crate.
    Last edited by kirves; 06-10-2012 at 01:10 PM.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Ohmwrecker View Post
    There is absolutely no reflection that the chances of getting items are reduced in any way
    Except if you bother to look at each item listed by its name, you'd find that the first 3-4 listed are 'common' items that are worth less than $1 in the shop, and the uncommon/rares that make up the rest of the specific listings hover between $1 and $2. (This is also reflected in how they drop from the drop system. Commons are more likely to be found than any other item category)

    Until there is a way to show off your killcount via strange items, crates are currently gambling for a courier, unusual or otherwise, as all of the likely prizes are worth currently worth less than the cost of the key.

    Quote Originally Posted by durkadurka View Post
    it's Valve trying to scam people into buying things which are worthless.
    There's only a scam if THEY are misrepresenting what you're purchasing. YOU having RIDICULOUS IDEAS OF HOW THE SYSTEM SHOULD WORK does not mean it is a scam.

  3. #23
    Basic Member aeon44's Avatar
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    its your fault anyways.
    we all know that the item inside chests are always random.

    just buy the items instead of the keys.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fleur De Lis View Post
    Except if you bother to look at each item listed by its name, you'd find that the first 3-4 listed are 'common' items that are worth less than $1 in the shop, and the uncommon/rares that make up the rest of the specific listings hover between $1 and $2. (This is also reflected in how they drop from the drop system. Commons are more likely to be found than any other item category)

    Until there is a way to show off your killcount via strange items, crates are currently gambling for a courier, unusual or otherwise, as all of the likely prizes are worth currently worth less than the cost of the key.
    Have you read the descriptions of the chests? Where does it say anywhere that the couriers and exceptionally rare items are any less likely to pop from the "uncommon" chests? These other drops you get just from playing the game, and yes, rarity seems implied there. The description of the chests however simply state that one of the items are in the chest. It comes off as if the odds are equal, and as shown on page 2 I did the statistics calculations and I should have had at least a 99.99% chance of getting one of the 8 items I would have been happy with out of 15 attempts, and 96% chance out of just four. The odds would be even higher for every "exceptionally rare" item there is out there, if odds were equal for drops.

    Quote Originally Posted by aeon44 View Post
    its your fault anyways.
    we all know that the item inside chests are always random.

    just buy the items instead of the keys.
    Did you see my calculations on page 2? Look at those next time, the system is obviously not equally random. It's skewed with extremely bad odds for anything but the cheapest items. This is not implied by the description in any way, nor was it explained in the blog update. That's my issue here, I wouldn't have spent the money to buy a ton of keys for all the chests I got if I knew Valve didn't have an equal chance at any of the drops.

    Here's the post on page 2: http://dev.dota2.com/showthread.php?...l=1#post243840
    Last edited by Ohmwrecker; 06-10-2012 at 09:19 PM.

  5. #25
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    And that's why Valve want to Dota 2 to be F2P. You spent $50 on keys!? Of course, you "should have spent that $50 on boosts" or anything else but keys. As they said, it's a gamble and the odds are you'll be greatly disappointed. Valve is gambling with your primate mind, human. A gamble Valve knows they'll win

    You weren't ripped, but you could ask for the exact odds of getting any item. Will they do it? Well, only if they want to earn less money, as it would be even clearer that the buying keys is not a good thing - for you.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Ohmwrecker View Post
    Have you read the descriptions of the chests? Where does it say anywhere that the couriers and exceptionally rare items are any less likely to pop from the "uncommon" chests?
    Why does it need to be explained to you that the prizes that have a value greater than that of the key will have a lesser chance of dropping? Why does it need to be explained that prizes of middling value have lower drop rates than prizes of lower value? If you USED YOUR BRAIN and looked at the setup for what it is (instead of flailing around trying to blame anything you can for your lack of judgement), you would have realized this before you spent some 50 bucks on keys.

    Heck, why didn't you check the wiki before you blew through 25 crates? Yes, there is a wiki. Yes, it does have some rough drop data. And yes, that data will probably make you rage.

    http://www.dota2wiki.com/wiki/Treasure_Chests

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ohmwrecker View Post
    Have you read the descriptions of the chests? Where does it say anywhere that the couriers and exceptionally rare items are any less likely to pop from the "uncommon" chests? These other drops you get just from playing the game, and yes, rarity seems implied there. The description of the chests however simply state that one of the items are in the chest. It comes off as if the odds are equal, and as shown on page 2 I did the statistics calculations and I should have had at least a 99.99% chance of getting one of the 8 items I would have been happy with out of 15 attempts, and 96% chance out of just four. The odds would be even higher for every "exceptionally rare" item there is out there, if odds were equal for drops.

    Did you see my calculations on page 2? Look at those next time, the system is obviously not equally random. It's skewed with extremely bad odds for anything but the cheapest items. This is not implied by the description in any way, nor was it explained in the blog update. That's my issue here, I wouldn't have spent the money to buy a ton of keys for all the chests I got if I knew Valve didn't have an equal chance at any of the drops.

    Here's the post on page 2: http://dev.dota2.com/showthread.php?...l=1#post243840
    I have solution for you, you should trade your same items to your friends or this link or for me to get other items what do you want...

    I still didn't understand why people on this forum make statements like "Valve is gambling with your primate mind, human" but for me i am very thankful for Valve because I've ever traded my TF 2 Earbuds ($30) got MW3 ($60). Its so lucky......
    Its very idiot to quit play dota 2/TF2 if only problem with comestic items

  8. #28
    Basic Member Jojje's Avatar
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    there is a trade system in the game and once people start opening more crates and there's more content readily available you'll be able to get what you want in one way or another by trading your dupes for things that you actually want

  9. #29
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    Also its wrong section for OP. Because his problem related to lucky or unlucky not about any customization bugs...
    Its very idiot to quit play dota 2/TF2 if only problem with comestic items

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fleur De Lis View Post
    Why does it need to be explained to you that the prizes that have a value greater than that of the key will have a lesser chance of dropping? Why does it need to be explained that prizes of middling value have lower drop rates than prizes of lower value? If you USED YOUR BRAIN and looked at the setup for what it is (instead of flailing around trying to blame anything you can for your lack of judgement), you would have realized this before you spent some 50 bucks on keys.

    Heck, why didn't you check the wiki before you blew through 25 crates? Yes, there is a wiki. Yes, it does have some rough drop data. And yes, that data will probably make you rage.

    http://www.dota2wiki.com/wiki/Treasure_Chests
    I read the description of the chests, used my brain to come to the conclusion that the chest contained one of the items as stated (with absolutely no mention of diminishing odds), and spent some money so that I could unlock my chests. Valve's wording did not suggest that the chances of getting any of the items possibly contained within diminished based off rarity. I understand that with post-game / battle rank-up drops there are better odds of getting a common item over a mythical item, but the chests appeared to me to have a completely different system based off the verbage. Chests I have to pay money to unlock, and they blatantly state that the chest contains one of the following items (which includes the purples). That's it!

    I've taken plenty of college level math classes, I know how to calculate odds. I was willing to have equal odds of getting a common over one of the pets listed in the description (or even an exceedingly rare item), I was not aware however that the odds of getting items in the chest were the exact same as getting them in game when an item pops for you. If things were on an equal ground I wouldn't have felt bothered at all by getting some strange common items, because I would have also gotten some really cool ones as well. After all, I'm spending my money, something that players aren't obligated to do but which supports the game.

    Let's see you spend close to $50 on something that isn't explained well by a AAA developer like Valve and then not express your own concerns about it. This was not a satisfying investment at all for me, any of the alternatives in the store would have been better. I don't mind spending money on games I enjoy like Dota 2, but in this case I'm pretty much turned off from spending money again. Valve deserves to know that, that's why this beta and these dev forums exist.

    Regarding the Wiki, thanks for that. Per my calculations, with those diminishing odds (which should have been disclosed in some way in the description text) on just the Deep Druids chest I should have had a 40.2% chance of getting an exceedingly rare item after 15 attempts.

    1-((0.9663)^15) = .402 or 40.2%

    The Ivory Isles chests would have had worse odds for exceptionally rare if those numbers are accurate. Just 24.4% for one exceedingly rare drop after 15 attempts.

    1-((0.9815)^15) = .244 or 24.4%

    But when you look at the text of the chests in Steam the purples are not lumped in with the exceedingly rare text, they're separate. Where are they getting their data?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jojje View Post
    there is a trade system in the game and once people start opening more crates and there's more content readily available you'll be able to get what you want in one way or another by trading your dupes for things that you actually want
    Given how low they are in value already (seriously, there's very little demand if any at all for "Strange" commons), and how much they're going to be popping for other people given the limited number of possibilities right now, I can't see them gaining any value over time.
    Last edited by Ohmwrecker; 06-11-2012 at 12:01 AM.

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