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Thread: Is this normal?

  1. #21
    Basic Member Firewyrm's Avatar
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    I wish keys to open chest were cheaper, how about $1.50 or even $.099 instead of $2.50.

  2. #22
    Basic Member mindfaQ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phoenixclaw View Post
    the chance NOT to get an unusual courier when opening one chest is 0.98% so opening 70 chests makes the chance 0.98%^70 = 24.3%. so the chance of actually getting an unusual courier was 75.7%. kinda unlucky for you, but not too amazing.
    it is not 0,98% but 98% = 0,98 (% already stands for the 1/100)

    Quote Originally Posted by Zath View Post
    Your statistics while correct are misleading. chance has no effect on what actually happens. Each chest has the same chance of giving a courier. Opening more does not give the next one a higher chance. You just have more chances to get lucky.
    He obviously presented the chance to get no courier at all when opening 70 chests. There is nothing misleading about that.

    Still OP was unlucky, I got 3 modifiers with about 7 keys from chests that could drop modifiers.
    Last edited by mindfaQ; 09-18-2012 at 06:42 AM.
    specs for bugreports:
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  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by rickondraw View Post
    Its random,
    if you have like a 1% chance to get a courier, it doesnt mean if you use 70 keys its goes up to 70% chance,
    every unlock will still be just 1%.

    It how percentages work.
    Are you saying a person who opens 70 chests has the same chance to obtain a strange after being finished than a person who opens 1?
    The first guy's probabilities are correct.
    Before opening his 70 chests, the person has a 70% chance.
    With each failed chest attempt though, his chance decreases.

  4. #24
    Basic Member Raging's Avatar
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    If the chance of getting unusual is 1% = 0.01, then with 70 tries the chance is: 1 - (0.99^70) = 50.5% just to keep mathematics intact.

  5. #25
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    Are you saying a person who opens 70 chests has the same chance to obtain a strange after being finished than a person who opens 1?
    No, he's saying that previous chances don't affect your next one.

    Before opening his 70 chests, the person has a 70% chance.
    Wrong.

    With each failed chest attempt though, his chance decreases.
    Wrong.

  6. #26
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    We're talking here about the probability to obtain a strange in 70 chests. This probability is forcibly greater than the probability to obtain a strange in 1 chest.

    If we were to take the chance of one individual chest, say obtaining a strange on chest 20 out of the 70, then the chance would be the chance of one chest. If you take every possible outcome of events listing the 70 obtained, there is a smaller proportion of combinations with no stranges (0 stranges out of 70) proportionally to without stranges than with a single chest (0 stranges out of 1), because this time you need one strange on 70 events, not one strange on a single event. The strange can be in any of 70 places.

    The probability to calculate is of having one strange on 70 results, not one on one result, the problem and probability changes completely. The fact that the chance on every individual chest is equal isn't relevant insofar as calculating the total probability.
    Last edited by jim109109; 09-21-2012 at 05:47 PM.

  7. #27
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    Read (and understand :P) this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy and thank me later!

  8. #28
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    Here's an example. With two dice of 1-3, the chance to obtain 1 is 1/3.
    The chance to obtain 1 in two throws is however greater.

    If you consider all possibilities in 2 throws, {1 1, 1 2, 1 3, 2 1, 2 2, 2 3, 3 1, 3 2, 3 3}
    There are 5/9 outcomes containing 1, thus a 5/9 chance, which is greater than 1/3.

    You can also calculate this by (2/3)^2 [chance not to obtain one]. Which is 4/9, therefore 5/9 chances to obtain a 1.

    Gambler's fallacy states that after throwing the first dice, a gambler would maybe think the chance on the second changes, which it doesn't. Once one of the two dices are thrown, the probability to obtain 1 becomes 1/3 again.
    That's why I was clear to say that the chance is greater before he has opened his 70 chests.
    Last edited by jim109109; 09-21-2012 at 08:13 PM.

  9. #29
    Basic Member Kakkoii's Avatar
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    I think the simplest way to explain all this for people is:
    Every unlock has the same chance, no matter how many you open. But, because there is always a chance, then the more you open, the less probable it becomes that you don't finally land on the favorable outcome. But no matter how many you open, it can never be guaranteed, only increasingly more likely into infinity. You could flip a coin a million times and never have it land on heads, even though the heads chance is 50%; but the percent chance of this happening is infinitesimally small, and becomes smaller the longer you go on.

    100 tries at something with only a 1% chance is still very likely to never land on that 1%.
    D̶̪̏̇͛͂̈̊̏O̬͉̱̭̤̐ͤ͝T̥̼̗̦̯͙ͣ͐ͮͨ͛̐Ä̩̣̖̘̖͍̹͐ͮ̊ͣ̆̎ ̗͖̘̲̝͔̅͐̀̎͗͌̐2̢̔̄ͭ̋͌̾

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by murysor View Post
    Fine I'll get back to you guys when i open 200+ chests and still won't get an unusual.
    it won't prove anything besides the fact that you have no idea how to gamble

    probability doesn't guarantee you anything, ever.

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