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Thread: A Report System Experiment #1 (May 13th - May 27th)

  1. #51
    Basic Member Crowfeather's Avatar
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    I disagree with the maths also the fact you are using "Were muted or refused to communicate" I see a lot of people who can talk but rarely do. They just play their game. So it holds little evidence to suggest how many people are actually muted. A proper breakdown would be nice. Also its kind of sad that you all experienced chat bans but the guy in LPQ. I play about 10-21 games a week and I have been muted in this system only twice (this is out of a total of 300-400 games since the mute system started maybe even more). At times I can be very verbal although I rarely rage. I debate often.
    I also do not have the greatest personality to get a long with. I wonder about the validity of this experiment.

    Also your numbers are strange

    The 34 of us averaged together 13 games per week per player (889 games total, potentially 8001 different players encountered, we used 7500 for calculations)

    889*11= 9779 not 8001....

    On a side note lets take Germanviets well calculated distribution and lets make some assumptions to why this is bias.

    -->OP is Californian. Americans hate foreigners cause they are terrorists or ignorant to the power of 'merica.
    Thus his 33 friends and himself are all 'merican.
    Thus we can assume from these results 90% of the American playerbase is muted. Thus we can assume there are 40,000 active players in America and US citizens make up 100% of those muted in Dota2.
    Thus we can assume Americans are arseholes in dota.


    Out of my 30 active dota2 friends. I know only two people have been muted. One who is Swedish and doesn't rage is quite friendly. He was muted once I believe or maybe this is his 2nd time but no more.
    The other has 30+ days of LPQ and rages a lot. He infrequently gets chatban.
    Last edited by Crowfeather; 06-23-2013 at 03:22 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Typhox View Post
    Nope. Windows Explorer is not a database
    Take a look into the mirror! You think you are completely unfailable. With your limited knowledge, you think that you know more than someone who is very deep in the matter/an expert.

  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaella View Post
    forgive me for saying this but..

    We don't know that. We simply know half of them were muted. We don't know how they acted. Everything in this is taken from good faith on the part of the readers, to believe the data on people being muted innocently, we don't have any evidence of what their actions were or how they acted.
    If they only used the chat wheel for communication (and I'm going to assume that they also didn't spam 'Well Played!' when a teammate died) then these mutings seem entirely unjustified.

    OP, can you confirm that they weren't being sarcastic with their wheel commands? They only used them for in-game statements, not to criticise teammates?

    Quote Originally Posted by Propkid View Post
    Dismiss Shaella. Semi-arsed troll; at least D.E.A makes some effort. Shaella has proven to dismiss arguing with anyone who's able to speak their mind.
    Do you think that this post is an attack on Shaella's credibility, or your own?
    Last edited by magicmerl; 06-23-2013 at 03:23 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by fletcher View Post
    Just to clarify, there was never any "win rate" calculation. Ever. It is true that a goal of matchmaking is to make even teams. The matchmaker also will raise your Elo and try to put you in players of equivalent skill, which indirectly tries to get the win rate to 50%. However, it has never looked at your historical win rate and put you in a game where it knew that you were expected to lose.
    Is every post on this forum about the Dunning-Kruger effect?

  3. #53
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    @ max1c

    This doesn't resemble the active player base at all. People talk and use chat wheel.

    So before you defend OP and think you have invalidated my whole argumentation with that statement you have not.

    --------------

    It could be true for only those who exclusivly use the chat wheel. But I have no information on how well they performed. If they intentionally trolled their teammates. If they did the chat wheel spam. Generally if they played normal. And they played A LOT in those 2 weeks.
    What I know is OP doesn't like the mute system. They made an experiment where they only used the chat wheel. What is happened beyond? I don't know. It is possible that they intentionally tried to get reported by being disruptive ingame.

    Let's assume the chat wheel only is true. What information can we draw from it? Players who never type text are being wrongfully muted?

    --------------

    If you believe the result it means that 87.4% - 99.85% of players who only communicate via chat wheel get muted.
    This experiment shows that a normal player who only use chat wheel, never types has a chance of 87.4% - 99.85% on being banned? While someone who talks a lot and does defend himself against trashtalkers, ocassionally even says "fuck" and "shit" - like me - never gets muted?
    (Now this should already be a ringer that the experiment doesn't count for chat-wheel users only. There were surly other factors that made the chances on being muted go up drastically.)

    I am convinced that this experiment was set up under wrong conditions.

    --------------

    And now I claim this: This experiment has indicated that the punishment system works because I believe the experimenters intentionally tried to be reported. Just so they can "prove" that the mute system is banning "innocent" players.

    Just as you said: Also this claim can potentially be true.

    (You don't make random sample test to say there is a possibility. You make random sample test to say it is working or it is not working anymore.)

    With this I am done. I have proven that that experiment doesn't resemble our community. And I have shown that even if it is just resembling those who are only using the chat wheel the experiment is still made up under wrong conditions.

    We can conclude that there is a high chance that the experiment is mainly built on the basis of 34-only-chat-wheel users who are trying to get reports in. They have proven that those who never type but are using chatwheel and are very disruptive ingame can receive mute as punishment.
    James "2GD" Harding's career as a Dota 2 host on Valve events
    * 25.02.16 - 26.02.16
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  4. #54
    Basic Member Shaella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by magicmerl View Post
    Do you think that this post is an attack on Shaella's credibility, or your own?
    since when do i have credibility

  5. #55
    Basic Member Linken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lynxvarn View Post
    We felt this did not need to be posted earlier because of the report system shaking some of its' problems loose, but it seems that the system really is as broken as we thought. So here it goes!

    MAYBE THIS
    MAYBE THIS
    MAYBE THIS

    HAVE SOME NUMBERS THAT I PULLED OUT OF THE AIR WITHOUT EXPLANATION, VALIDATION, OR ANY INDICATION OF RESEARCH

    HAVE SOME ANALOGIES FROM MY FRIENDS

    CONCLUSION
    Do you even know what constitutes an experiment?

  6. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by OP
    We have taken numbers of muted or players refusing to speak in our games from a period of 2 weeks. Every single one of us was using an account clean of communication bans or reports, All Pick and Single Draft modes, both Regular and Solo matchmaking on US West or East, varied our play times, and most importantly ONLY USED THE CHAT WHEEL FOR COMMUNICATION.
    This seems very reasonable, and a good way to baseline the experiment.

    One possible criticism I have is that it's possible that the participants all had a bias against the mute system to begin with, so might have tried to intentionally bias their results to 'earn' mutes.

    Can you also confirm that the participants were NOT spamming pings, Well Played!, or other things that typically antagonise teammates?

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaella View Post
    since when do i have credibility
    I think that a lot of your posts in other threads have been pretty good. You seem to have started from quite different baseline assumptions from me in this thread though...
    Last edited by magicmerl; 06-23-2013 at 03:32 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by fletcher View Post
    Just to clarify, there was never any "win rate" calculation. Ever. It is true that a goal of matchmaking is to make even teams. The matchmaker also will raise your Elo and try to put you in players of equivalent skill, which indirectly tries to get the win rate to 50%. However, it has never looked at your historical win rate and put you in a game where it knew that you were expected to lose.
    Is every post on this forum about the Dunning-Kruger effect?

  7. #57
    Basic Member Crowfeather's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Linken View Post
    Do you even know what constitutes an experiment?
    A hypothesis followed by the following structure expanded

    Hypothesis/Aim/Objective/Question
    Apparatus
    Variable list Dependent Controlled independent
    Detailed Method of experiment conduct
    Detailed analysis of method
    Results gathered with statistical break down and links
    Collation of statistics into visual representation
    Correlation discovered or not/ statistical manipulation (Finding PMCC regression line etc)
    calculations for validity or accuracy of visual representation/correlation
    Conclusion drawn from previous information gathered.

    Method must contain a controlled system where there is only a single input and output variable.
    Method must contain a varied range of subjects or conditions of the independent variable.
    Method must include experiment repeats numerous --50+ repeats.
    Method include an average and any anomaly to be stated and calculations following on results must state whether these were taken into account in the calculation stage or not.
    Method must include sources and detailed explanation of setup what it is trying to achieve how it works what exactly has been done.
    Method must include a breakdown of each stage into high detail with full reports.



    If this was a true experiment every match would be recorded (replay saved) and a full report would be put down on each match and a log of exactly what happened and the game conduct.
    Also proper data analysis would take place visual representations would be included and a full detailed method would have been provided.


    The experiment we have witnessed is effectively this:

    Hypothesis: Test the mute system
    Method; Get some friends play some games using only chat wheel
    Results: All but one got chat banned
    Conclusion: Mute system is broken.

    Nothing on conduct or game reports are mentioned. No visual or written data is shown.
    At no point is it confirmed that the test subjects conformed to the rules. Dates and servers are not given for the game. Players are not listed and distinguished. etc



    Also considering that you cannot be muted while already muted then we can only assume that in a 2week experiment those who got a 7 day ban had a maximum of 10/14 days muted (with immediate reapplication of their chat ban) and at minimum had 4/14 days with a chat ban. This means that they were banned within the first week. This is laughable. Assuming that these results are true then the whole community would be banned. As a 2week period gives 90% chance of being banned. That means in a few months almost 100% of the community would be chat banned.
    Last edited by Crowfeather; 06-23-2013 at 03:40 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Typhox View Post
    Nope. Windows Explorer is not a database
    Take a look into the mirror! You think you are completely unfailable. With your limited knowledge, you think that you know more than someone who is very deep in the matter/an expert.

  8. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaella View Post
    (also, the sample is biased, since "An added note, my group of friends has chosen to refrain from purchasing anything from valve until you do fix the current system, they seem to agree with me that in it's current state it only causes more damage to the community than good."), so still useless data
    what? being against the mute-system and not buying anything from valve is related to communication-banns in the way that such people will use their chatwheel in a different manner?

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaella View Post
    forgive me for saying this but..

    We don't know that. We simply know half of them were muted. We don't know how they acted. Everything in this is taken from good faith on the part of the readers, to believe the data on people being muted innocently, we don't have any evidence of what their actions were or how they acted.
    ah, and valves claim of 1% of the playerbase being muted and the mutesystem doing fine work, that is your view, is based on what other than good faith? is there any evidence, real evidence, in valves post? do you have any evidence that showed the mutesystem is working fine?


    Quote Originally Posted by Shaella View Post
    shit
    Quote Originally Posted by Shaella View Post
    Jesus christ. You people really can't read can you
    Quote Originally Posted by Shaella View Post
    You're just really bad at numbers
    Quote Originally Posted by Shaella View Post
    fucked
    Quote Originally Posted by Shaella View Post
    Fuck that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shaella View Post
    Well played!
    reported. rightfully so.
    i feel offended by your profanity. and you granted me the right to do so in some other post yourself, thank you. be coherent please. and dont be so badmouthed.

  9. #59
    Basic Member Linken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crowfeather View Post
    A hypothesis followed by the following structure expanded

    Hypothesis/Aim/Objective/Question
    Apparatus
    Variable list Dependent Controlled independent
    Detailed Method of experiment conduct
    Detailed analysis of method
    Results gathered with statistical break down and links
    Collation of statistics into visual representation
    Correlation discovered or not/ statistical manipulation (Finding PMCC regression line etc)
    calculations for validity or accuracy of visual representation/correlation
    Conclusion drawn from previous information gathered.

    Method must contain a controlled system where there is only a single input and output variable.
    Method must contain a varied range of subjects or conditions of the independent variable.
    Method must include experiment repeats numerous --50+ repeats.
    Method include an average and any anomaly to be stated and calculations following on results must state whether these were taken into account in the calculation stage or not.
    Method must include sources and detailed explanation of setup what it is trying to achieve how it works what exactly has been done.
    Method must include a breakdown of each stage into high detail with full reports.



    If this was a true experiment every match would be recorded (replay saved) and a full report would be put down on each match and a log of exactly what happened and the game conduct.
    Also proper data analysis would take place visual representations would be included and a full detailed method would have been provided.


    The experiment we have witnessed is effectively this:

    Hypothesis: Test the mute system
    Method; Get some friends play some games using only chat wheel
    Results: All but one got chat banned
    Conclusion: Mute system is broken.

    Nothing on conduct or game reports are mentioned. No visual or written data is shown.
    At no point is it confirmed that the test subjects conformed to the rules. Dates and servers are not given for the game. Players are not listed and distinguished. etc



    Also considering that you cannot be muted while already muted then we can only assume that in a 2week experiment those who got a 7 day ban had a maximum of 10/14 days muted (with immediate reapplication of their chat ban) and at minimum had 4/14 days with a chat ban. This means that they were banned within the first week. This is laughable. Assuming that these results are true then the whole community would be banned. As a 2week period gives 90% chance of being banned. That means in a few months almost 100% of the community would be chat banned.
    Exactly.
    Thank you for verbalizing the problems I have with this thread.

    (Mostly the missing data)

  10. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaella View Post
    >5-6 a day

    Fuck that. I maybe have time for 2-3 a day.
    Firstly just like to say, this is very possibly why you have never been muted. Just because you play that much doesn't mean other people do the same. I have raised this point time and time again about play frequency and getting reported.

    Anyway... I'd like to say I am not an advocate of the mute system, but I find this hard to believe. I mean I have been muted once, and I must admit I have not been muted since. I will not say this is because I have reformed or any rubbish like that but I have learned to work around the system. But to have everyone reported?? Also if you started with fresh accounts how was one in LPQ?

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